Anastasia Bekish: Even if renouncing Kyoto-2 we should start modernization of economy
Belarus will probably reject the participation in a second commitment period under the Kyoto Protocol.
Belarus has planned to participate in a second commitment period under the Kyoto Protocol which is to start on January, 1, 2013, but the 18th session of United Nations Climate Change Conference ended in an unexpected way: according to the new rules, the participants of the Kyoto Protocol practically won’t be able to extend emissions, which is unacceptable for Belarus. This information in the talk with the EuroBelarus Information Service shared the climatic policy consultant of the “Green Network” Association Anastasia Bekish.
Initiated by the small island states, which suffer from the climate changes most of all, a paragraph that presupposes compulsory revision of emission quotas within the second commitment period framework and basically deprives the right of the member-countries to establish commitments within the Protocol framework was added to the Amendment to the Kyoto Protocol that regulates its second commitment period.
“On the one hand, this paragraph revives ecological essence of Kyoto Protocol, and on the other – it brings the participation of Belarus in the second period of the Protocol under question”, - noted the interlocutor.
According to the new rules of the protocol, during the second period it will be prohibited to produce more emissions than the mean value for 2008-2010 multiplied by 8 years, or the term of Kyoto Protocol lifetime. For Belarus it means the necessity to stabilize the level of emissions.
“Originally Belarus has planned to assume commitments to reduce emissions by 12 per cent relative to the base year of 1990. These are fairly low commitments, as in 1990 we witnessed the collapse of the economy, and the emissions reduced by half”, - told Anastasia Bekish.
But new commitments suggested by the island states have seriously toughened the requirements for Belarus: “This pace of developments is normal for the developed countries, as their state politics is already aimed at reducing, not the raising of the emissions. For the EU, which is the main motive power of the Protocol’s second period these conditions are quite admissible. For the developing countries, which don’t carry any commitments on reduction in emissions, there are no problems as well. As for the countries in transition, such as Belarus or Ukraine, these commitments are problematic, as our countries have planned to raise emissions in the near future. Thus, Belarus increases its emissions at the average by 2 per cent per year”.
Thus, Belarusan state has faced difficult choice. “The governing body of Belarus found itself in stalemate, as it hasn’t expected such pace of events. Now our officials hold consultations, trying to figure out how to react in this situation”, - said the expert of the “Green Network”.
It is no surprise that the officials make contrary statements in this situation. Thus, the director of the Department of Hydrometeorology of the Ministry of Natural Resources and Environmental Protection Aleh Maksiuta claimed that Belarus will take part in a second period under the Kyoto Protocol. At the same time the representative from Belarus at the negotiations in Doha Aliaksandr Grebiańkou said that he is going to recommend calling back the letter of consent to sign Kyoto-2.
Nevertheless, the probability of our country participation in a second commitment period is indeed critically low now: “With the current condition of power system, agriculture, industry the country is really not ready to abandon growth of emissions – we may simply not be able to cope with these “compulsory commitments”, - noted Anastasia Bekish.
“To such serious change of policy one should prepare beforehand, - continued the interlocutor. –That is why now the question consists not in why we reject Kyoto-2, which is, undoubtedly, a fact already; but in why we don’t even have calculation yet that would show us how to reorganize the energy system and other carbon-consuming industrial sectors so that to be up to Kyoto requirements”.
There is no doubt that the mere cancellation of Kyoto will be a mistake – the country should draw lessons from the situation and begin modernization no matter whether it is part of the international agreement or not. “The most important thing now is not to and to forget about Kyoto for 8 more but to start changing, - noted the interlocutor. – In any case, we should start modernization and switch our economy onto the low carbon rails; otherwise the already prolonged stay of Belarus with the status of a country in transition can change on the level of “the country that is left behind forever”.
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