Andrei Yahorau: EU Association Agreement won’t stop Russian intervention at the east of Ukraine

However, Ukraine is obtaining stronger tights with the EU, thus obliging the EU to take more active participation in resolving the situation in the country.

On June 27 Ukraine signed a broad agreement of cooperation with the European Union.

What benefits will Ukraine get from it? Will the EU be able to exert influence on the termination of hostilities in Ukraine? What will the EU Association Agreement mean for Belarus?

Andrei Yahorau, the head of the Centre for European Transformation, answered the questions asked by the EuroBelarus Information Service.

- What does the EU Association Agreement mean for Ukraine?

- The EU Association Agreement opens the way to institutional reforms basically in all spheres – politics, economy, social sphere, justice, and culture; in issues related to corruption, arrangement of border and much more.

Ukraine makes a considerable step towards EU space.

- How will the Association Agreement affect Russia-Ukraine relations – stabilize them or aggravate them even more?

- Entering the EU free trade zone won’t have any negative impact on Russia; there is even economic benefit for Russia in this step. An argument against Ukraine’s entrance in the EU free trade zone claimed by Russian economists and politicians is the need to compete with the European companies and goods that are also getting access to the European market. Whereas free competition is the usual principle of market economy.

But Russia doesn’t want competition; it is trying to get economic preferences at the expense of political concessions. Politics prevails over economy there.

Besides, Ukraine is moving away from Russia towards the EU both symbolically and politically, which is very concerning for the Russian political establishment. This is the only thing that Russia is actually losing; and it really doesn’t want to do that.

Signing of the agreement won’t have direct influence on Ukraine-Russia relations as they are on a different level now.

- Will Ukraine feel more secure in the custody of the EU?

- Ukraine is getting stronger tights with the EU and is obliging the EU to take more active participation in resolving the situation in the country. Diplomatically and politically, Ukraine’s stance is getting stronger.

However, de facto at the east of Ukraine the war is going on. The question of normalization of relations is the cessation of hostilities and Russia’ hidden intervention. EU Association Agreement itself won’t stop Russian intervention at the east of Ukraine and won’t give Ukraine more opportunities in getting military help or military technologies. Further developments depends on the actions of the Ukrainian government, which has a strong trump card – the Association Agreement.

- EU Association Agreement, which served as a reason for undeclared war with Russia, is signed. What comes next?

- Signing of the agreement has by and large exhausted the former politics of the Eastern Partnership, which was aimed at spreading the norms of the European legislation into the EaP countries. It is easy to sign the agreement; and it is likewise easy to violate the signed agreements. Everything that we observed earlier is just a preparation. Now the most difficult stage starts – implementation of the agreements.

At this stage internal problems of the signatory countries of the Association Agreement (Ukraine, Georgia and Moldova) will show up: inadequate work of the institutions, political confrontation of forces, which are unwilling to introduce pro-European reforms and don’t have enough knowledge, competence, and personnel. A lot of institutions, such as army, law enforcement agencies are basically destroyed – the country has a half-destroyed corrupted management system, which mostly has to be created anew. This situation requires the EU to get fully immersed in the problems of the signatory countries of the Association Agreement.

I’m not sure that the EU has enough personnel, knowledge, possibilities and enthusiasm for such deep immersion in the problems of the signatory countries.

- What will the EU Association Agreement mean for Belarus?

- There won’t be any direct effect. However, there are two indirect factors.

Belarus remains the only Moscow’s political ally. Kremlin turned to be unable to break Ukraine’s resistance and stop its movement towards Europe. Thus, Belarus will be using its status of the “sole Moscow’s ally” for its own gain and make Russia pay for political loyalty. Official Minsk will continue its traditional political balancing between the EU and Moscow.

In medium-term perspective EU Association Agreement should influence economic growth in Ukraine. And Belarus will also benefit from that – it’s in our country’s interest for Ukraine to be wealthy and strong.

Moreover, if Ukraine’s European way turns to be economically attractive, it will become attractive for Belarusans, too, which means that pro-European moods in the country will be stimulated.