Uladzimir Matskevich: Lukashenka doesn’t gain anything from being at war with the Ukrainian people

Russia will hardly ask Belarus’ military help in the Ukrainian conflict. And official Minsk will respond to the situation in Ukraine with restraint.

Such opinion voiced Uladzimir Matskevich, the head of the Board of the International Consortium “EuroBelarus”, philosopher and methodologist in the talk with the EuroBelarus Information Service.

- The analogies are quite appropriate. The actions of the Russian regime towards Ukraine are very similar.

First Kremlin started an information war on Ukraine. After that Russian media raised a panic in Crimea and other South-Eastern regions of the country. Such propaganda was most successful in Crimea; however, its people didn’t ask to bring troops to “defend the Russian-speaking population” and all the more didn’t plan to start more active steps.

Kremlin got into a rut: Russia exploited the open borders to send Russian citizens to Crimea so that they could fake all sorts of actions and provocations. The Supreme Council of the Autonomous Republic of Crimea was seized with their participation. It also served a s a reason to bring in Russian army to Crimea before it was approved by the Russian Federation Council.

- Why does Russia need a war with Ukraine?

- I don’t think that Russia wants a full-scale war with Ukraine: Russia’s actions are aimed at weakening the statehood of Ukraine and creating chaos in order to introduce interim Russian government in Ukraine and start “restoration of the destroyed Ukraine”. It will be done with attracting US, EU and world funds, so that to plunder them later, as it happened earlier in Chechnya and Georgia.

- Russia’s aggression resulted in uniting Ukrainian nation rather than inflaming civil war at the South-East of the country.

- Ukraine doesn’t stop to surprise us. Even those who were against Maidan rise to defend the country. People unite in the face of external aggression.

Ukraine’s unity and integrity fully depend on the Ukrainians. At the same time Putin and Russia rapidly lose their authority.

- Ukraine made an appeal to Putin calling him for abstaining from the decision to declare a war upon Ukraine. Will the world community be able to find arguments that can influence Putin?

- In the current situation we can only feel sorry for the European and American politicians, as taking into consideration Russia’s nuclear power and fragile peace that was so hard to keep at the planet over the last decades, it is hard to post their army against Russian army in Crimea. Nuclear parity doesn’t guarantee that the Third World War is averted; and neither NATO nor anyone else would dare to upset this fragile balance.

However, it is the connivance of US and EU towards Putin’s regime that brought the world to the brink of the Third World War.

- Aggression in Ukraine was initiated by a country-member of the CSTO. Being a member of the CSTO and main Russian ally, will Belarus have to send Belarusans to death in Ukraine?

- Russia will hardly need help of Belarusan army.

Lukashenka’s regime sends firm signals regarding its standpoint on the matter. Its actions will be tough and even cruel, even though protests against was could be useful to the regime.

- Does it mean that Lukashenka will follow Kremlin’s commands?

- Let’s not fantasize about it. Belarusan regime vows fidelity, but Russian regime doesn’t count on its help. After the military operation in Georgia in 2008 Belarusan regime hasn’t yet recognized the puppet regime in South Ossetia and Abkhazia. And official Minsk will respond to the situation in Ukraine with restraint as well; not because of Lukashenka’s inner moral restraint, but because Lukashenko doesn’t gain anything from being at war with the Ukrainian people. Thus, he will act with restraint.