Uladzimir Matskevich: The regime still has enough resources to suppress social explosion

While the society is atomized and uncoordinated, the authorities will make isolated attacks on Belarusans’ rights and guarantees.

Last week people were called for organization of a new protest action “Stop Tax”. However, nothing came out of it.

Why is it happening? Is it because of people’s despair to stand up for their rights or is it because of the organizers’ disability?

EuroBelarus Information Service tries to find the answer together with Uladzimir Matskevich, the head of the Board of the International Consortium “EuroBelarus”.

- From the three protest actions “Stop Tax” only the first one was noticed. However, there was a new call for the forth “Stop Tax” on December 10 with a clear action plan; but no actions followed. Why?

- I have repeatedly been writing and saying that different kind of injuries, economic and social hardships won’t lead to exerting pressure on the authorities, if there are no people or structures in the opposition who can be trusted by the offended.

A lot depends on how the offended people are organized. Unless there are people who know how to organize a protest, people who can get followers, no worthwhile resistance will take place. There is no feedback and no response; and chaotic, unorganized attempts to assert people’s rights are doomed. In such situation protest actions are impossible.

- Is there any sense to organize protest actions like “Stop Tax” then?

- Some of the public leaders, who contributed to organization of such protests, can get a confidence vote from the offended; however, as soon as some opposition leaders join in with it, the protest action is doomed.

- Except for the extra traffic police and plain clothes police, the authorities ignore the protests of the motorists. Does it mean they see no danger in the protesters?

- The authorities think that the situation is under control, considering the scale of the protest action.

Last year Belarusan authorities tried to use official trade unions to put pressure on the government; however, the government managed to prove that with or without protests, unpopular measures would be introduced under such economic situation. The authorities realise they cannot ensure social guarantees and they are not going back on their word.

Taxes from motorists are to be followed by some other unpopular measures: in the pension system, with the other social guarantees. It is most important that these unpopular measures are not aimed at a wide circle of Belarusan society. While the society is atomized and uncoordinated the authorities will make isolated attacks on Belarusans’ rights and guarantees.

- Indeed, it is easy to crack down on Belarusans: to rob one social group first, then some other – robbed and offended people won’t get the support of the whole society.

- It is the realization of divide and rule principle; and till people are consolidated, it will be easy for the authorities to apply this principle. Only solidarity consolidation of all forces and social groups can concentrate the protest potential.

- Will the society get consolidated before the economics collapses?

- I have always been warning against naïve hopes for social explosion, as the regime still has enough resources to suppress it.

If the protests are going on as they used to be going – without leaders, without consolidation of protest potential – there are no hopes for the social explosion.

Each social group worries about itself; there is no consolidation between the groups, so the authorities can sleep sound.