Aliaksandr Alesin: Western countries shouldn’t have any concerns about “West 2013”

Military drill which started on September 20, is beneficial for Russia in its military-strategic aspect, and in pecuniary aspect for Belarus; whereas our western neighbors shouldn’t have any concerns.

Such an opinion in the talk with the EuroBelarus Information Service shared Aliaksandr Alesin, the military analyst of “Belarusans and market” paper.

He noted that joint military Russia-Belarus drill is being held basically since our country became independent. “Russia doesn’t want to let Belarus go from its sphere of influence; however, recently when a united group of ground forces and air defence was formed within the Union State of Belarus and Russia, all the military exercise are run in accordance with the plan and are of more ordered and regular character”, - told Aliaksandr Alesin.

The expert also said that “West 2013” military drill is beneficial both for Russia and for Belarus; however, the benefit they get is different. “From the military and strategic aspect point of view, Russia needs this drill more, whereas Belarus gets more benefits from the pecuniary aspect, - noted Aliaksandr Alesin. – Thanks to the drill, Belarusan army gets the opportunity to shoot at Russian training ground at Russia’s expense; I also think that Russia is a sponsor of many actions at the Belarusan territory”.

Thus, cooperation with Russia in military sphere is important for Belarus only if for sustaining the minimum level of available technology and fighting capacity of Belarusan army. “Traditionally, Belarus supports cooperation with Russia for economic benefit. It is even written in the documents of 1996 where Russia promises to provide Belarus with preferences in exchange for observance of its interests”, - recalled the military observant.

Still, should Belarus’ western neighbors fear the forthcoming military exercise? Thus, Polish papers already have published several possible odious scenarios: from the uprising of Polish minority in Belarus to the nuclear attack on Warsaw.

“The scenario plays no role; it is the number of the forces involved that matters. If we analyze the current exercise, we’ll see that only about 2500 military men are involved in it; the number of strategic, front-line aviation and other technical equipment, - noted Aliaksandr Alesin. – In order to organize an attack that can actually be of concern to our neighbors, this technique in not enough. And I agree that this military drill is purely defensive”.

The expert made a supposition that fuss in Polish, Lithuanian and Latvian media around military drill in Belarus is caused by interparty struggle in these countries: “Parties want to demonstrate who cares more about the defence capacity. Besides, we in the situation when Polish military budget can be cut on one billion dollars the scenario of outside threat is always used. Belarusan army can’t be of serious threat to the external enemy; our army is only efficient if we talk about defence. That is why, I believe, military analysts, have no concerns about this drill”, - summed up Aliaksandr Alesin.