Siarhei Nikaliuk: For Lukashenka to lose in the election everything should collapse

Russian euphoria echoes in Belarus: the number of Belarusans willing to unite with Russia has grown, as well as the Lukashenka’s approval rating.

Ukrainian revolution and the following Russian occupation of Crimea have echoed in Belarus. The attitude of Belarusans to the Ukrainian events has severely worsened, while the number of Belarusans willing to unite with Russia has risen by 5%, as well as Lukashenka’s approval rating. It is seen from the latest survey performed in March by the Independent Institute of Socio-Economic and Political Studies (IISEPS).

Though the social scientists were expecting that the trend observed in December will continue, Lukashenka’s electoral rating went up. Let us recall that according to the poll conducted on December 2013 by IISEPS, the approval rating of Aliaksandr Lukashenka made only 37,7%, while electoral rating – 34, 8%.

Siarhei Nikaliuk, an expert from the IISEPS, in the talk with the EuroBelarus Information Service voiced his confidence that we are to blame Russian euphoria that has reached our country for that.

- Why has Belarusans’ attitude towards the Ukrainian revolution worsened? Is it due to the Russian propaganda or there are some more hidden factors?

- Russian propaganda exerted great influence on the Belarusan society; Russian euphoria has echoed in all the indices shown in the polls conducted by IISEPS in March. This is the real reason why Lukashenka’s approval rating went up.

Though some experts think that the reason for that is fear of the Ukrainian events, I believe it is the euphoria and enthusiasm that are to be blamed. In September 2008 Lukashenka’s approval rating also insufficiently rose, and that was the time when Russia won war in Georgia. And considerable part of Belarusans sees that victory as their own.

The same thing, though on a smaller scale, happened in March. The majority of Belarusan society has positively perceived the Crimean annexation to Russia. Russia is going through euphoria, and its echo is heard in Belarus.

- It is paradoxical, that being in “nirvana”, Belarusans still mark the worsening of the economic situation.

- I have always been saying that for short lapses of time politics can be more significant than economy.

Starting from September 2013 real earnings of Belarusans have been declining; so in March we expected that December trends will continue. However, we see growth instead of decline!

When Belarusans are asked how their salary will correlate with the prices, 60% of them say that prices will grow faster than salaries. Public opinion is inherently ambivalent. Belarusans keep saying that the course is correct; however, their life is worsening.

In comparison with the Russian society, Belarusans are more pro-western. In usual situation there is no saying that Lukashenka’s approval rating will make 80, 70, or 60% (as it is with Putin’s rating), but it can easily make 40%.

- Considering the Ukrainian events the growing number of Belarusans who are ready to vote for union of Russia and Belarus is especially concerning.

- A part of Belarusans perceive Russian victory as their own; they perceive themselves as a part of Russia. It is euphoria that takes its origin in Russia.

- Lukashenka’s quarterly electoral rating rose by 5%, and his approval rating rose even more – by 7%. But you seem to disagree with the fact that Lukashenka’s rating grew by leaps and bounds.

- I agree that his rating grew considerably; but I don’t think that Ukrainian revolution is the reason for that. I still think it is euphoria.

We still share our information area with Russia. Moreover, the majority of Belarusans still have Soviet beliefs, which basically means they have imperial beliefs. Thus, we see the success of the reviving Russian imperia.

- According to the polls, at the next presidential election the person, who would be able to compete with Lukashenka, would allegedly get 53,2% of votes, whereas the incumbent president would get 34,5%. Does it mean that any politician can win a victory over Lukashenka?

- It only means that no politician can conquer Lukashenka. Such questions are asked on a regular basis, and it is always some unknown politician who gets more votes than the incumbent president.

There is certain languor that is reigning in the society. When we ask about a successful politician, everyone among us thinks about his own person. As soon as we start talking about someone in particular, we immediately encounter traditional limits of votes that the opposition politician can get. It happens due to the stable part of society that is always in opposition to Lukashenka.

Belarusans are getting tired. But presidential election is a fateful choice. And Belarusans won’t be buying a cat in the sack in this case. To conquer Lukashenka his rating has to drop down to 5%, as it happened when Yeltsin was retiring - back in 1998-99 he was perceived as a major threat, and people needed a principally new political course. We are not merely waiting for replacement of one figure for some other.

For Lukashenka to lose in the election everything should collapse.

- Does it mean that sociology predicts yet another Lukashenka’s victory?

- Prolongation of Lukashenka’s rule is the most possible scenario. However, we shouldn’t exclude the possibility of a different outcome – we are living in a dynamically changing world.