Uladzimir Matskevich: The potash conflict is not entirely economical

In fact, this conflict is very important as it affects geopolitical destiny of Belarus and Russia. But most elements of this puzzle are hidden from the society.

Uladzimir Matskevich, the head of International Consortium “EuroBelarus” stresses that he avoids any comments on the conflict that began as a scandalous “divorce” between “Uralkalij” and “Belaruskalij” and grew into the pre-war stage of a trade war when Vladislav Baumgertner, the head of “Uralkalij” was arrested in Minsk.

- This situation is complex and any simple versions of the events would not be appropriate or correct. Both formal Minsk and formal Moscow are extremely careful in this situation. None of the parties rush the escalation of the events. Despite the fact that the arrest of Vladislav Baumgertner is connected so to speak with a range of other economic and political issues, no one has a definite solution or understanding of the situation. It is obvious that the confrontation of “Uralkalij” and “Belaruskalij” in uniform of “Belarusan potassium campaign”, which was created with political and partially economic intentions, do not stand for the entire conflict that has arisen now.

According to Uladzimir Matskevich, it is expected that the conflict will be solved on the global economic level.

- For example, with the help of trade. Like, oh you arrest Baumgertner? Well then, we will put the lid on gasoline or dairy markets. All these are elements of trade, but I think it is impossible to solve the problem at this level. Most likely it is a manifestation of the fundamental contradiction between the attitudes of Belarus and Russia to the integration initiatives, that is to the self-determination of the two countries regarding the global division of labor and the fate of each of these countries. In any case I would not rush to give a simple interpretation of the events. Apparently, numerous plans of interstate relations affecting, perhaps, more countries than just Belarus and Russia clashed in one person and one situation. In a way or another, all the problems of the European Neighborhood Policy, of the “Eastern Partnership” and others mix here. With no account taken of these plans it is probably impossible to deal with the conflict.

Matskevich explains that his call for caution in the assessment and interpretation of the conflict is due to “a number of issues that remain outside the public attention”.

- As, for example, documents concerning strategic military partnership between Belarus and Russia have not yet been published. And obviously, Aliaksandr Lukashenka agreed to aggravate the situation by arresting Baumgertner because he was referring to a great dependence of Moscow on strategic agreements, which are not publicly available and associated with the placement of military bases in Belarus, and on the military strategic partnership and so on. And these levers that do not become the subject of attention of the media and the public will be used by formal Minsk. But we will know nothing about them because they are unlikely to be published. I think, Belarus have taken into account all the trumps and jokers they have in the relations, that is why the attempt to turn our attention to demarche from Onischenko concerning dairy market or to the expected tranche of $ 400 mln or anything else are just ways to distract people from the deep nature of the conflict. But in my view this conflict is extremely important as it affects the very geopolitical destinies of our countries. Until we gather all the elements of the puzzle it is difficult to make any conclusions. The main thing now, I believe, is not to make premature or simplified interpretations of the events. Our versions, conclusions and reasons are very, very probabilistic in this case.