Uladzimir Matskevich: Lukashenko will feign democratization
11.02.2012
The thoughts and ideas, which come to the head of the Belarusan president when he is compelled to do something, can easily be sized up. This is how the Head of the Council of the International Consortium "EuroBelarus", philosopher and methodologist, Uladzimir Matskevich, has commented on Alexander Lukashenko's statements about the forthcoming parliamentary elections.
"Lukashenko is easily predictable. Last year, the possibility of such statements of Lukashenko was discussed and considered when we were working out the Strategy "We are one nation". Having faced the necessity to carry out changes towards democratization in the country, he will be feigning them. It is so obvious that there is no need to specially analyze it or to be able to predict it", said Uladzimir Matskevich.
According to the expert, it is also possible to guess easily the way the president "will feign".
"He will fill the parliament with some people who will pretend to be oppositional, though it will be difficult for them. The first thing that comes to Lukashenko’s mind is to find harmless, obedient, and controllable people (such people are all those who are in today's parliament and all those who hold state posts) and to appoint them to the parliament. Actually, he used to do it in the previous years. Still, everybody has already seen that these controllable and obedient persons are not able even to profess independence, let alone opponency", said the philosopher.
He has added that another thought can come to the head of the Belarusan head - to make arrangements with "not absolutely controllable" figures such as the former presidential candidate Viktor Tereshchenko or the chairperson of the Liberal-Democratic Party Sergei Gaidukevich. "I think that Lukashenko would have chosen this very variant, but he has already been explained that absolutely nobody will believe this cheap game. Then, he should invent more risky combinations, and there are two possible variants", explains Uladzimir Matskevich.
Variant 1: controllable liberalization of the election process.
"Here, if not going into details of a theoretical description, it is better to mention the names of prototypes - the people like Olga Abramova, Vladimir Novosyad, and all members of the former faction “Respublika” will be allowed to enter the parliament. That is, in a sense, the opposition, but weak and harmless", analyzes the expert.
The second variant is not to profess any liberalization of the election process - simply to buy several real oppositionists, having offered them several places in the parliament. "Then, in the parliament, there will be some characters with the reputation of real dissenters who will easily be blackmailed and controlled", predicts the head of the Council of the Consortium.
"Having agreed on such variants, Lukashenko could deceive very many people - especially those who wish to be deceived. But, apparently, even such variants frighten Lukashenko; they seem excessively risky to him. He is afraid of even the minimal risk. Having got used to a very primitive political game, Lukashenko can feel at ease only when he supervises everything completely and forever. It is clear that nothing can ever be absolutely forever", says Uladzimir Matskevich.
For this reason, he does not exclude that Alexander Lukashenko "will resort to deceit and simulation" according to one of the described variants. "Alas, Belarus’ civil society is rather clever and experienced to understand such deception, but it does not have enough political will, solidarity, and feeling of comradeship to resist it", said the methodologist.
"Already now we can see that among the opposition and certain circles of civil society there are people and structures that are ready to take part in the national fraud according to both mentioned variants. It is also possible to name several independent candidates who are intensively preparing to the elections irrespective of the fact what character the election campaign will have. There are also some political parties with a stable oppositional reputation that are ready to take part in the elections without declaring any conditions and any objections as for the character of how they will be carried out. Clearly, it is these candidates and these political structures that Lukashenko will try to persuade or to bribe", Uladzimir Matskevich considers.
As for the question, which is being discussed now, about the possible release of opponents of the political power from prisons, he has no illusions here.
"I am not inclined at all to make comments on the idle talk and to discuss the vain hopes. Political prisoners are either freed, or not freed. And Lukashenko will free the political prisoners only under very strong pressure. He will resist any weak pressure to the end", the expert is convinced.
As the Information Service of EuroBelarus informed earlier, on February 10th Alexander Lukashenko ordered deputies to help the Central Electoral Commission "to democratically organize the process of the parliamentary elections", having declared that in the Belarusan parliament it is necessary to save 25% of the present deputies.
“Whatever one may think, it is an examination for the power. It is necessary to solve these questions in advance so that the people would not berate us during the parliamentary elections and so that our "śviadomyja" [i.e. nationally-oriented Belarusan-speaking patriots] from the “fifth column” [i.e. opposition] inside the country and especially in the West would not pick a bone with the structure of the future parliament,” considers the head of the state.
He also set the task "to restore the pre-crisis level of incomes of the population in a year or a year and a half". "Maybe, to slightly increase this level so that people would understand that we do not just talk during our working time. If you have promised - keep your promises", said Alexander Lukashenko.
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